USDCHF – Rolls Over, Set To Weak Further With Eyes On .50 Fib Ret (The Week Ahead)
USDCHF: The pair ended the week lower for a third week in row since turning off the 0.9591 level on Jan 09’2012. With that said, USDCHF faces the risk of further declines in the new week towards the 0.9063/75 level, its Nov 30’2011 low/.50 Fib Ret (0.8558-0.9591 rally) where a violation will extend price weakness towards its psycho level at 0.9000. We may see a breather here due to the psychological nature of this support level but if taken out, expect more weakness to shape up towards the 0.8890 level, its Nov 03’2011 low. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, on any recovery, the pair will aim at the 0.9175 level, its Dec 08’2011 low followed by the 0.9240 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur and turn it lower. However, if this fails to happen, the pair could strengthen further towards the 0.9504 level, its Jan 13’2012 low and then the 0.9591 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9772 level, its Feb 11’2011 high. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside on further nearer term weakness.
