Currency Index Notes:
From last week’s analysis, we had recommended to sell NZDUSD, targeting 0.72 from 0.74/0.75 levels, short GBPAUD, GBPCAD, AUDUSD, NZDCAD and to buy USDJPY. As of market close on Friday, 13th March the recommendations performed as follows:
NZDUSD: Rallied to 0.74 and dipped lower below 0.72, +2.7% Profit
GBPAUD: +1.18% Profit on Short
GBPCAD: +0.83% Profit on Short
AUDUSD: +1.04% Profit on Short
NZDCAD: -0.87% Loss on Short
USDJPY: +0.49% Profit on Long
AUDNZD: +0.61% Gain since 2nd March on Long
- Continue to remain holding AUDNZD and exit half the position at 1.05 and exit towards 1.07
- Continue to hold AUDUSD, NZDUSD shorts
Australian Dollar Index
- The Aussie Dollar managed to reach/retrace back to the support/resistance region between 1.542 – 1.5344
- It would be tricky from here on despite the bias is to the downside back to 1.5128
- Daily candle on Friday closed bearish in this region but weekly candle was bullish
- The fact that the Aussie dollar is back in the support/resistance level indicates a few remaining upward thrusts before the Aussie dollar declines
- Alternatively, a break out from the smaller falling price channel could indicate the intention to test the next resistance/support at 1.578 – 1.567.

Conclusion: Do not take any new positions in AUD until the trend offers a more clear picture
Canadian Dollar Index
- Price action continued to push higher as expected and there is still a lot of room left for testing 1.59 broken support for resistance
- There is a possibility that on the daily time frame, the Canadian dollar could dip to 1.556 – 1.533 to establish support before pushing higher
- If this turns out to be true, CAD would be ideal to buy on the dips
- Daily candlestick shows two consecutive days of bearish price action indicating short term weakness, while weekly is still bullish

Conclusion: Trend is not clear and it would be best to wait for the Canadian dollar to dip to 1.556 zone for renewed buys
Swiss Franc
- We did not cover the Swiss franc for the past few weeks but this week the SNB meets which could offer volatility
- After the infamous break of the peg in January, the Swiss franc rallied but failed and quickly declined back to the support level
- If this support hold, the Swiss franc could continue to push even higher, while a break of the support at 1.9797 could weaken the currency even more

Conclusion: Up or down, a retest back to 2.047 for bullish breakout or 1.9797 for bearish break out is more ideal
Euro Index
- Price broke down from the previous low at 2.145 after the doji reversal near the second support/resistance level
- Weekly candle close just outside the third support/resistance level so a retest back to 2.1458 is very likely
- Daily/Weekly outlook is very bearish so the Euro could see more weakness
- Next support is at 2.055, a long way to go

Conclusion: Sell Euro on rallies on stronger currencies
Sterling Index
- As noted from last week, the Sterling Index dropped back to the broken resistance near 2.96 – 2.95 to establish support
- Question is if the support will be successful, failure to hold prices could see a further decline lower to 2.91 level
- Weekly candlestick is bearish engulfing both the highs and lows from last week
- Daily candlesticks show price stalling near the potential support zone
- On both daily and weekly price is above their respective EMA’s so we assume that the uptrend is still intact

Conclusion: Start adding small positions to GBP longs
Yen Index
- The weekly doji three weeks ago saw a bearish follow through back to the support zone
- Price is held by the weekly EMA in the support zone
- On the daily, the Yen formed a close to bearish engulfing pattern indicating short term strength to continue in the Yen
- Ideally, we expect a break lower and then a retest for the declines to continue
- Daily charts also show a fake break out from the small triangle pattern

Conclusion: Take or hold long positions in Yen
Kiwi Dollar Index
- As noted last week, price retraced back to the support/resistance level at 1.473 and is now back above its weekly EMA
- Daily charts show a lower high being made indicative of a decline lower
- Candlesticks do not offer any conclusive evidence of price action
- We are inclined to be biased to the downside on account of the lower high

Conclusion: Continue to hold NZD shorts but only against stronger currencies or currencies that have an upward bias.
US Dollar Index
- Price action is at an all time high and just a few pips from the all time resistance at 2.016
- Daily or weekly candlesticks do not offer any insights
- It would be best to stay out of the USD pairs this week and see how things unfold
- The main question is will the Dollar index break out from 2.016 or will we see a sharp correction from here
- Any declines will be halted near 1.96 levels so despite the sell off, USD remains a buy

Conclusion: Stay aside USD this week
Prepared with LiteForex Currency indices
Based on the above analysis our recommendations are as follows:
- Buy GBPCAD from 1.8623
- Sell GBPAUD on a rally or sell at market targeting 1.8927
- Buy GBPNZD at market